Tropical Depression 16 forms in the S.W. Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center takes the five-day track over the Florida Panhandle as a Category 1 Hurricane, called Nate.

Source: Weather Underground.

The hurricane's predicted path takes it over hot water in the Caribbean and a loop current eddy in the Gulf of Mexico.

Source: Univ of Miami via Weather Underground.

The reason why the NHC chose to route the hurricane into Florida was that only one model, the GFS, showed a predicted path for the hurricane going into Louisiana and that, according to their analysis, the GFS had the trough that will be steering Nate to be too strong. Weather Underground's Dr Jeff Masters reported so earlier this morning.

Now we have an 11 AM update to the model runs and instead of just the GFS routing Nate into Louisiana, there are now four of them. Three of them put him right on top of Bogalusa, La. at 11 AM Saturday morning! And only two models route the hurricane into the Florida Panhandle or Alabama.

Source: Weather Underground.

If this thing follows the NAM track, the HMON track, or the TVCN track, it could become a very bad hurricane! We're not out of this yet.