Nothing to See Here, Move Along!

Well it’s been quite a hurricane season in the Atlantic so far, hasn’t it? It’s even gotten the notice of the UK press.

Here are a couple of graphics from Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts:

Source: Philip Klotzbach, via Twitter.

We’ve had six major hurricanes this season (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Lee, Maria, Ophelia), three of them exceptional in the amount of cyclonic energy they’ve accumulated and expended (Irma, Jose and Maria). The UK Express notes that Harvey has had the largest rainfall and Irma has had the longest duration as a Category 5 hurricane, ever (at least since 1851 and possibly since the Eemian).

Source: Philip Klotzbach, via Twitter.

The above seven parameters each have the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season in the top twenty seasons since 1851, six of them in the top ten—although only one in the top five.

Weather Underground’s Dr. Jeff Masters has this to say:

It’s been an exceptionally busy Atlantic hurricane season in 2017.  Rina’s formation in November means that all six months of the official Atlantic hurricane season, June through November, saw formation of a named storm. Since hurricane names began being assigned in 1950, only six other years have had this happen: 1954, 1989, 1996, 2005, 2011, and 2013

Now does this mean anthropogenic global warming’s had anything to do with this?

Well according to Kerry Emanuel, atmospheric scientist at MIT, the 2017 hurricanes are merely a foretaste of the future and that the increased damages from hurricanes due to ever-increasing development of the shorelines is being exacerbated by rising sea levels and changing storm characteristics due to anthropogenic climate change. He also says that the average annual number of hurricanes has increased, that the probabilities of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma have already been changed, and that as the climate warms these storms will continue to gain strength until they reach their inherent limits and their maximum size will begin to level off as well. The UK Express alleges that Prof. Emanuel said that “hurricanes with the magnitude of Hurricane Harvey had gone from a once a century event to a once every 5.5 years event.”  The real reality is that Prof. Emanuel states in his video that in the time period 1981-2000, Harvey would have been a 2,000-year storm, and could become a 100-year storm in 2081-2100. If I recall correctly, this year NOAA said Harvey was a 500-to-1,000-year storm.  More on Harvey: 1% chance of same rainfall for anywhere in Texas in the 90s, now 6% Chance in any one year.

On the other hand, climate scientist and climate forecast consultant Dr. Judith Curry states it’s way too soon to tell, that each individual hurricane should be subjected to diagnostics---instead of using models to create imaginary storms in a world not subject to global warming---to determine if global warming has had a hand in it. She notes that there have been busy hurricane seasons in decades past and even some notable hurricanes in the Nineteenth and early Twentieth Centuries.

So isn’t all this is just the noise from natural variability? Or is it?

You can go to this and this webpage put up by Weather Underground and view the statistics therein, pursue the linked webpages therein (here’s one, another one, and another one), and view the hurricane FAQs and years with the most hurricanes webpages at the NOAA website.  Note, the pages are not updated for 2017 (except the one about Irma).  You can review these pages and decide for yourself.

As far as I’m concerned, our weather has gotten more extreme---and weirder, to boot. Speaking of weird weather, there’s disturbance that might become a named sub-tropical storm, Sean. Near the Azores. In November.