Well it’s
been quite a hurricane season in the Atlantic so far, hasn’t it? It’s even
gotten the notice of the UK press.
Here are a
couple of graphics from Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University
specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts:
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| Source: Philip Klotzbach, via Twitter. |
We’ve had
six major hurricanes this season (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Lee, Maria, Ophelia),
three of them exceptional in the amount of cyclonic energy they’ve accumulated
and expended (Irma, Jose and Maria). The UK Express notes that Harvey has had the largest rainfall
and Irma has had the longest duration as a Category 5 hurricane, ever (at least since 1851 and possibly
since the Eemian).
 |
| Source: Philip Klotzbach, via Twitter. |
The above
seven parameters each have the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season in the top twenty
seasons since 1851, six of them in the top ten—although only one in the top
five.
It’s been an exceptionally busy Atlantic hurricane season in
2017. Rina’s formation in November means
that all six months of the official Atlantic hurricane season, June through
November, saw formation of a named storm. Since hurricane names began being
assigned in 1950, only six other years have had this happen: 1954, 1989, 1996,
2005, 2011, and 2013
Now does
this mean anthropogenic global warming’s had anything to do with this?
Well
according to Kerry Emanuel, atmospheric scientist at MIT, the 2017 hurricanes
are merely a foretaste of the future and that the increased damages from
hurricanes due to ever-increasing development of the shorelines is being exacerbated by rising sea levels and changing storm
characteristics due
to anthropogenic climate change. He also says that the average annual number of
hurricanes has increased, that the probabilities of hurricanes like Harvey and
Irma have already been changed, and that as the climate warms these storms will
continue to gain strength until they reach their inherent limits and their
maximum size will begin to level off as well. The UK Express alleges that Prof.
Emanuel said that “hurricanes
with the magnitude of Hurricane Harvey had gone from a once a century event to
a once every 5.5 years event.” The real
reality is that Prof. Emanuel states in his video that in the time period 1981-2000, Harvey would have been a 2,000-year
storm, and could become a 100-year storm in 2081-2100. If I recall correctly, this year
NOAA said Harvey was a 500-to-1,000-year storm.
On the other
hand, climate scientist and climate
forecast consultant Dr. Judith Curry states it’s way too soon to tell, that each individual
hurricane should be subjected to diagnostics---instead of using models to
create imaginary storms in a world not subject to global warming---to determine
if global warming has had a hand in it. She notes that there have been busy hurricane
seasons in decades past and even some notable hurricanes in the Nineteenth and
early Twentieth Centuries.
So isn’t all
this is just the noise from natural variability? Or is it?
You can go
to this and this webpage put up by Weather
Underground and view the statistics therein, pursue the linked webpages therein
(here’s one, another one, and another one), and view the hurricane FAQs and years with the most hurricanes webpages at the NOAA website. Note, the pages are not updated for 2017
(except the one about Irma). You can review these pages and decide for
yourself.
As far as
I’m concerned, our weather has gotten more extreme---and weirder, to boot.
Speaking of weird weather, there’s
disturbance that might become a named sub-tropical storm, Sean. Near the
Azores. In November.
